Tepid Sense of an Intrepid Destiny

Friday, May 07, 2004

There is, possibly, more than coincidence regarding the high price of oil . The last time light crude hit $40 a barrel was in 1990, right after Saddam Hussein's evil regime invaded Kuwait and the U.S. subsequently attacked Iraq.

Woodward, in his new book, Plan of Attack discussed the possibility of a conspiracy involving the Bush administration and Saudi Arabia fixing the price of oil until election time. While searching to see what country is the largest producer of oil (which I presume is Saudi Arabia), I came across a brilliant article detailing a timeline of prices and the historical significance. In short, "Before the Persian Gulf War, Saudi Arabia demanded about 25 percent of the OPEC production ceiling; after the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait the share rose to 35 percent...
The biggest battles in OPEC prior to 1990, however, were between Saudi Arabia and two of its gulf neighbors: Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Both refused to restrict production to their quota levels, and by early 1990 their serious overproduction contributed to mounting international crude oil inventories. By the second quarter of 1990, the oil traders in New York were pushing oil prices down.
Saddam Husayn's envoy, Saadun Hamadi, toured the gulf in June 1990 and halted the slide in prices as Iraq unveiled its own "oil weapon": the threat to invade Kuwait. Buttressing this threat by mobilizing 30,000 troops on the Kuwaiti border, Baghdad dictated an agreement at the OPEC ministerial meeting the following month. Although respecting Saudi Arabia's 25 percent market share, and allowing the UAE to raise its quota to 1.5 million barrels per day, OPEC set an overall ceiling of almost 22.5 million bpd and a compromise price of US$21 per barrel.
When Iraq invaded the invasion of Kuwait, it provoked massive intervention by the United States into the gulf and ultimately lost its power within OPEC. Behind direct United States protection, the kingdom's oil production rose to 8.5 million bpd or 35 percent of OPEC's total output."

It seems that US involvement in Iraq is directly related to the rise in oil prices. Duh... but it is probably not due to economic indicators, state of the economy, the fear of war or terrorism, or the value of the dollar. Woodward touched on something big... the problem is that since everyone is expecting prices to drop before the election, if they don't Bush's great royal friends stand to make even more money! Maybe Woodward is in on it too!!!

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